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Saturday, 27 September 2014

J-LEAGUE TITLE URAWA'S TO LOSE

Urawa Reds
Nasu & Moriwaki celebrate as Makino looks on enviously.
With nine rounds of the J-League season remaining the title is Urawa's to lose. The Reds have a six point buffer and a cosy run over the next four rounds, which should see them open up an unassailable lead by round 29. 

Over the next four rounds Urawa travel to the abominable Cerezo, before hosting Tokushima (last place), then heading to Sendai (14th) and once again returning home for Kofu (13th). If Urawa are worthy of the title they'll take the full 12 points from these fixtures. This year the Reds have shored up their defence and now brag the stingiest back-line in the J-League, with just 20 goals conceded from 25 matches. A far cry from 2013 when they leaked 56 goals over the 34 rounds.

Meanwhile, nearest rivals Kawasaki Frontale have some tough fixtures soon, with in form Gamba Osaka in the 28th round and stuttering Sagan Tosu in the 29th round. Even with striker Yoshito Okubo in fine form it's hard to see Frontale remaining within six points (as they currently are) over the next four rounds. Kawasaki also have a difficult away trip to Niigata to deal with in the 27th round, though Niigata is currently boasting 1 win from their last 6 outings.

It's certainly mathematically possible for any of the J-League's top five teams to walk off with the title, but if Urawa extend their lead over the next four rounds, we can surely cast off Sagan Tosu who've won just two from seven since sacking their Korean manager. In fact you can cast them off now, and forget about the Champions League if you're a Tosu fan.

Meanwhile, it will take just three more rounds to determine if Gamba Osaka is officially out of the title race. This week they face Sagan Tosu, then head to Kashima (3rd) before hosting Kawasaki (2nd). It's do or die time for Gamba, and they'll need to take a minimum of 7 points from the above fixtures before eying off Urawa four matches later in round 32. For Gamba to win they'll also need Urawa to 'crash and burn' in spectacular fashion.

J-League ladder 2014
NOTE: Predicted tallies provided up to round 29. You do the rest. Sagan Tosu not calculated as they have no chance.
Though my prediction is that the Reds will go on to win the league, there have been plenty of examples of J-league leaders falling in the shadows of the post. Just last year it was Yokohama F Marinos who unforgivably surrendered a 5 point lead with 2 matches to play, while the Reds themselves blew it in 2007 after holding an 8 point lead with 4 rounds to play. And it was way back in July on the J-Talk Podcast that J-League pundit Alan Gibson began his 'fantastical forecasting' that Gamba Osaka could still win the title. Gamba are now 9 wins from 11 since the mid season break in June/July.

The only thing that doesn't surprise in the J-League is the tightness of the competition.

Wednesday, 17 September 2014

KOREANS SOLELY FOCUSED ON ASIAN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

The Western Sydney Wanderers story continues tonight, live from Seoul. The rising Australian club with an Asian football pioneer (Tony Popovic) at the helm, is in a place that not even the most ardent and optimistic 'red and black bloccers' would have imagined. Popovic is quietly confident stating, "We may not have the experience they have . . . but we have a lot of belief that we can make the final." Their clash against FC Seoul tonight puts them up against an experienced continental performer, who though struggling domestically are favourite for the two legged fixture.

FC SEOUL
FC Seoul fans also wear red and black
Though comfortable in their role as underdog Wanderers would have preferred to be at full strength for the first leg. But in line with their 'blue collar' support base, they'll do it tough. Poignantly it's at the pointy end that the A-League club is deprived of regulars. Tomi Juric and Brendan Santalab are Western Sydney's strike weapons, and in their absence it's hard to see the Aussie club scoring in open play. Set pieces and defencive organisation will be pivotal if the Wanderers are to be successful. Former Mariners and current Jeonbuk (1st in K-League) defender Alex Wilkinson gives the Wanderers hope, noting that though the Koreans are solely focused on the ACL, "The Wanderers have nothing to be scared of." He added, "Asian teams in general tend to struggle against really well-organised teams."

FC Seoul have under achieved in this year's K-League, up until now. Currently sitting 5th they've gone seven matches without defeat in the league since early August. Further to that, FC Seoul are on their way toward becoming a regional powerhouse, with ACL quarter final appearances in 2009, 2011, and a final appearance against Guangzhou Evergrande in 2013. Despite losing striker Dejan Damjanovic (now at Beijing Guoan) from last year's squad, FC Seoul are once again figuring at the business end of the Asian Champions League. The team from the capital can brag the second stingiest defence in the K-League, and their quarter final win over Pohang Steelers is further evidence of their 'park the bus'-edness. The game was 0-0 after 180 minutes, finally decided when Pohang choked in the penalty shoot-out.

Over the two legs there should be few chances for both teams, and it's for that reason I see FC Seoul as eventual winners. The Koreans have a few more players with that individual brilliance that can break a stalemate. Expect to see imports Mauricio Molina and new signing Everton Santos have an influence on the result of this encounter, though they may not feature in the starting eleven. Molina's willingness to shoot is something that neutrals will no doubt enjoy, and Western Sydney will do well to silence the Columbian. Many fans will also be familiar with international Cha, Du-Ri who despite his 34 years is still featuring in K-League best elevens. Though I've tipped FC Seoul to advance it's certainly not a fixture I would invest any of my hard earned on. Good luck to both teams, but just quietly I'll be hoping for the underdog to prove the doubters wrong as they did in the quarter final.    

[WATCH THIS VIDEO TO SEE SOME OF MAURICIO MOLINA'S BEST GOALS]


Sunday, 7 September 2014

THE PAINS OF POSTECOGLOU

After a World Cup tournament that saw the Socceroos exceed expectations, the mood around the national team was notably positive. But there are plenty of questions to be answered. Manager Ange Postecoglou was elected under a banner of 'better football', but with no concrete sign of that in Brazil, the Victorian has a limited time to implement his patented 'Roarcelona' style, if at all. After a fifth successive defeat and seven matches without a victory, the managerial honeymoon is about to end.

Postecoglou
Socceroos manager Ange Postecoglou
While some hailed a brand new style in Brazil under the new gaffer, there were others including myself who failed to see any significant change. In the World Cup, Ange put his tactical ideologies aside in order to preserve national pride. The crossing and fewer passes completed provide evidence of that. But three losses from three didn't ring alarm bells for some pundits. Hence the familiar commiserative sentiments from overly positive types. Craig Foster's blog summarised the performance as, ". . . two close and competitive matches where Australia surprised many and gained a high level of respect and one football lesson." It's the phrase 'high level of respect' that has a familiar sound of satisfaction in defeat, that concerns me. As Robbie Slater's column in the Sunday Telegraph outlined today, punching above your weight and earning respect means nothing, unless combined with victory.  

The Socceroos have a limited time in preparation for the Asian Cup in January, and if Ange plans to implement the 'Roarcelona' style in that short period, he puts Australia's hopes in peril. Most alarming about a style revamp, is the timeline and ability to implement a football philosophy when your playing staff return to club outfits, that play in contrasting styles. Australia has a match against Saudi Arabia on Tuesday morning (5am AEST), and two listed for October against UAE and Qatar. These fixtures will provide evidence of the manager's intentions. With Australia expected to win all of those matches, Ange could be tempted to take the style over substance approach.

Public expectation is high, and the Asian Cup presents a situation diametrically opposed to the 2014 World Cup. The pressure is on, and players shouldn't feel compelled to play the ball out from the back if they're not capable. Fortunately, Postecoglou's Aussies have not mirrored his Brisbane Roar outfit. However, it's quite likely that the Roarcelona style is part of the 'Ange agenda'. With teams like Iran, whose style of pragmatism partnered with technical ability await, I'm crossing my fingers the manager puts style aside for now, and chooses trophies over ideology.