AUSSIES TO TAKE POINTS OFF HOLLAND. THAT AINT DOUBLE DUTCH.

Holland's number one hacker - Nigel de Jong

They're the team everyone's talking about. In their World Cup opener Holland thrashed 2010 champions Spain 5-1. Wow! Now the Dutch move onto soccer's downtrodden, mistreated and inglorious - Australia. The stereotyped ruffians, and technically barren Socceroos have a line up dominated by international rookies, with a spattering of proven pros. How can they beat Holland?

Thanks largely to a supportive media coverage, Australia's 3-1 loss to Chile has bet met with hope and positivity. As stated in my previous posting, there is a real 'feel good factor' reverberating around the Socceroos. They're young, energetic, and manager Ange Postecoglou has them believing they can beat anyone. Being a realist I don't believe that, but I sure as hell think they can get something from an overrated Dutch outfit.

On Australia's side is history and psychology. The pair has played three times previously for one Australian victory and two draws. In those three matches we've seen a measly five goals.

In terms of psychology let's face it, Australia is not a big scalp for Holland and never has been. The Dutch mindset will be 'get through this match without injury', and 'get through this match without yellow cards'. They're already thinking about a possible date with Brazil in the round of 16. Seriously, would the world be saying "wow!", if the Dutch do as expected and beat Australia? No. The Oranje will be going through the motions.

To illustrate my point about complacency I'll turn to Daniel Garb's interview with Holland manager Louis Van Gaal. Asked about the 'head to head' history of the two nations Van Gaal replied, "the statistics say that the Netherlands never have won from Australia." Van Gaal surprised the interviewer, but poignantly the 62 year old had a wry smile on his face after delivering that tasty little morsel. The Dutch are aware of Tim Cahill and the history, but in the back of their minds they think it's a certain three points.

So an over confident Holland will arrive in Porto Alegre having scored five goals against Spain - three from long balls and two that could be attributed to goalkeeping blunders. Applying a little perspective, we would all agree Holland are not four goals better than Spain, it was a once in a lifetime event. I've put my money where my mouth is - will you do the same?

$50 on the Socceroos 

 

19/1. That's easy money!

KOREA REPUBLIC WITH DREAM DRAW FOR BRAZIL 2014

Of Asia's participants in Brazil 2014 Korea Republic are the most fortunate. The Taeguk Warriors have been drawn in what I label the 'Group of Fluff', while Japan have also been rather fortunate in contrast to Australia and Iran.

Brazil 2014 has gifted Korea Republic with a dream draw including: Belgium, Algeria and play-off qualifiers Russia. Unfortunately the lucky draw has come at a time when Korea Republic is at a low ebb, with a world ranking of 54, and more importantly only just scraping through to qualify automatically for Brazil 2014. They finished second behind Iran and narrowly avoided a play-off on goal difference. Meanwhile, Russian manager Fabio Capello has put himself under pressure by labelling his team as favourites to win the group. The Italian tried to hide a contempt for his opponents by then saying he wouldn't underestimate them. "Belgium are an excellent team consisting of young and skilled players . . . Korea are also very serious opponents . . ." Capello said.

Japan were almost as fortunate as Korea Republic, drawing Greece, Cote d'Ivoire and Columbia. Greece limped into Brazil 2014 via a play-off, after managing a huge tally of 12 goals from their 10 qualifiers against European giants such as Liechtenstein, Latvia and Lithuania (yes, I'm being sarcastic). Cote d'Ivoire were pretty comprehensive in qualification, remaining undefeated and winning their last round match against Senegal 4-2, over two legs. At least Japan weren't drawn with Nigeria who downed Cote d'Ivoire 4-1 in July just as Mexico did in August. Columbia were second in South American qualification off the back of the stingiest defence on that continent, but on the bright side Japan didn't receive Brazil or Argentina.

Australia are in arguably the toughest group of the tournament, placed alongside Spain, Netherlands and Chile. Even without the shocking draw Australia were going to do it tough as they're in a transitional phase, but really . . . drawing 2010's finalists Spain and Netherlands, it couldn't get worse. New manager Ange Postecoglou was typically defiant, and upbeat. Postecoglou has had repeated success domestically with Brisbane Roar, winning two titles in a row, before rejuvenating Melbourne Victory. Aware of the enormity of the task, the Socceroos manager gave a steely response in his written statement on the FFA website, ". . . we will embrace the challenge head on with the spirit and bravery that are hallmarks of our country and the Australian people." The Aussies will face Chile first up and it's do or die for both teams in this match. Chile will no doubt look upon Australia as their three point pick-up, and possibly underestimate them. But Chile have some great form behind them this year, drawing with Brazil, drawing with Spain, and giving England a 2-nil touch-up in London. The match against Netherlands may be Australia's best hope, with the Socceroos never defeated by a Dutch outfit. Spain will be a bridge too far, but overall the Aussies are familiar with the role of underdog, and it often brings out the best in them.

Iran find themselves up against Argentina, Nigeria, and first timers Bosnia-Herzegovina. For me Nigeria are the dark horse of the tournament, and Iran may get a stern lesson in their first match pitted against the Super Eagles. Manager Carlos Queiroz spoke of qualifying as being a hellish experience and looked forward to Iran's challenge. "For my players it should be an honour to play against these rivals and it is important they go out and enjoy every minute of every match, eager to make it to the second round," the former Manchester United assistant said. Team Melli have never advanced past the group phase in three attempts, but positives in this campaign come from their ability to take points away from home, and their tight defence. They won three of four away matches, including wins against Uzbekistan and Korea Republic, and conceded a miserly two goals in eight matches.

If Japan can get something from the Cote d'Ivoire clash, and as expected beat Greece, they'll be on the path to advance. The rest of Asia will struggle. Korea Republic may have received a dream draw but they're not in a position to take advantage of it, and it will surprise me if they advance. Australia has the bright and shiny Tom Rogic, but even the lowest ranked of their opponents, Chile (15th) have strong form. Iran have a great defence, and are strong away from home, but matches against teams from outside Asia haven't been so impressive (defeated by Albania and drew with Tunisia 2012). It's left to Japan to carry the flag for the continent, and unfortunately in a tough campaign for Asian teams they will face Italy, England, or Uruguay if they advance through the group stage.

Asian World Cup Hopes on Tenterhooks

Can the Socceroos finish the job? Is Uzbekistan set for its first appearance in a soccer World Cup? Which two Asian teams will play off to face South America's fifth placed qualifier? All these questions are set to be answered on Tuesday night, 18th June 2013.

The Socceroos are finally playing with momentum and it couldn't come at a more fortunate time. Throughout the 2014 World Cup qualification tournament, Australia's form has been patchy, and frustrating for fans. No doubt manager Holger Osieck has been frustrated too. But the turning point arrived when Australia took a point away from the Japan clash, and just last week dealt with Jordan convincingly. Most poignant in these two matches has been the emergence of Robbie Kruse, Tommy Oar and Tom Rogic as genuinely influential members of the  2014 World Cup squad. Assuming that Australia wins against Iraq tonight, manager Holger Osieck has the luxury of the East Asian Cup tournament in July (played in Korea), in which to give these and other youngsters more valuable experience.

The clash against Iraq sees a glut of factors favouring Australia. The match is set to be played in front of a sell-out  80,000 strong crowd in Sydney; striker Younis Mahmoud (age 30) with over 40 goals for Iraq has retired from international soccer as of last week; Nashat Akram (age 28) the star of the 2007 Asian Cup tournament retired from international soccer as of last week; Iraq are out of contention for Brazil 2014, and new manager Vladimir Petrovic is on the nose. Petrovic has overseen losses against China in February and the woeful display against Oman a fortnight ago. In Iraq's favour is the unknown quantity that they present themselves as in Sydney. Made up primarily of the under 20 Iraqi side, goalkeeper Noor Sabri said, "We've got Humam and other players in our squad who we have a lot of faith in." The keeper was speaking specifically about midfielder Humam Na'oush just 17 years old with ten international caps to his name already.

Meanwhile, in Group A Uzbekistan host Qatar at home, while they cross their fingers that Korea Republic take care of Iran, in Ulsan, Korea. The Uzbeks are coming off a narrow defeat to Korea Republic in Seoul last week, where they went down 1-nil through an own goal. Manager Mirdjalal Kasimov has stated ominously that, "There is no reason to look for people who are responsible for the defeat." The midfielder responsible for the own goal, Akmal Shorakhmedov will be crossing more than his fingers that his manager is as forgiving as he paints himself to be. Their opponents cashed-up World Cup 2022 hosts Qatar, sit helplessly adrift of qualification, four points away. The Uzbeks have it all to play for and should get 'the cash'.

Interestingly it is Iran who have been the only team to inflict defeat upon Korea Republic during qualification. If they repeat the effort away from home they're headed for Brazil. Korea Republic have nothing to play for with a superior 'for and against', which would see them fend off the Uzbeks, unless there was a disaster. Korea are currently plus seven in goal difference while Uzbekistan are plus one.

If I was a betting man, I would say that Iran are headed to their first World Cup since 1998, when they famously knocked out Australia, in a play-off for the final position in France '98. Along with them will be Korea Republic from Group A and Japan and Australia from Group B. The Asian play-off should see Uzbekistan take on Oman.