HARRY'S HOPES FOR BRAZIL GET A BOOST

Harry Kewell - Melbourne Heart 2013/14

He's Australia's most celebrated soccer player, and though many wouldn't have believed it in 2001 it looks as though Harry Kewell will play in three World Cups. With Robbie Kruse's heart breaking ACL tear virtually ruling the 25 year old out of Brazil, Kewell's stocks took a boost. Now back from his own injury woes, there is a groundswell of support for the talisman. But he needs to convince one more man; Ange Postecoglou.

After failing to qualify for the 2002 World Cup, it seemed Harry Kewell would suffer the fate of so many great Aussie soccer players. The World Cup looked the impossible dream after Uruguay gave the Socceroos another taste of, 'so close yet so far'. However, Australia went on to reach the 2006 World Cup and 2010 World Cup with Harry Kewell playing a role on both occasions. Harry's late goal against Croatia sent Australia through to the knockout stage in Germany but his experience in South Africa was nightmarish. Brought down in the box against Ghana and ignored, he was later red carded for handball. Good and bad, Harry has seen it all, and the wealth of knowledge at his disposal can only benefit the youth around him.

Harry's chances of travelling to Brazil looked slim just over a month ago, when he had yet to complete 90 minutes for Melbourne Heart. But gradually Kewell has built up match fitness, and it's no coincidence that Melbourne Heart's on-field fortunes have taken a turn for the better since the return of Harry. Coinciding with Kewell's lift in form and game time was the devastating news of Robbie Kruse's ACL injury. The 25 year old attacker will need to perform a miracle to be ready by May 13th, when the preliminary 30 man squad is announced. The standard recovery time for ACL injuries is a minimum of six months before the individual can return to high impact activity that soccer involves, and Socceroos manager Ange Postecoglou is a staunch advocate of players with game time under their belt. This fact virtually rules Kruse out.

So it all comes down to Postecoglou. Is there some lingering discontent between Kewell and Postecoglou after Harry's departure from Melbourne Victory in 2012? Will the manager dig in stubbornly against the tide of momentum being built by Kewell's form, and advocates such as Slater and Harper? The two were heard in pre and post match discussions on Friday night (31st January), building the case for Harry, and with Australia's slated friendly with Ecuador set for March 5th, we will soon know if there are any skeletons in the closet.

MARINERS FOREVER MIRED IN MEDIOCRITY

Central Coast Mariners are currently 4th on the A-League ladder, with a host of teams within striking distance. The defending champions have long been punching above their weight, but it seems this season that the regular holes that appear in their campaign vessel, just can't be plugged. Will they ever have a steady ship?

Losing promising young players has been a fact of life for the Gosford based club, and it's something that the hierarchy are happy to celebrate. Former manager Graham Arnold recently echoed those sentiments in an interview with Robbie Slater. On Tom Rogic leaving Arnold said, "It was the philosophy of the club, and we needed it for the club to survive at the time." Further evidence of the philosophy can be found in the following departure list: Michael Beauchamp (left for Europe 06-07), Mile Jedinak (left for Europe 2009), Mustafa Amini (left for Europe 2012), Matt Ryan (left for Europe 2013). Add to that the club stalwarts who took Asian paydays: Alex Wilkinson (Korea), Matt Simon (Korea), and Michael McGlinchey (Japan). While the club likes to inform us that they will never stand in the way of a youngster jetting off to further his career, they forget to realise the fans are suffering.

The Mariners have stunned us with two premierships and one championship from the eight A-League seasons so far. They've appeared in four of the end of season championship matches and an amazing six times in the finals series. But a look at attendance averages is very disheartening for A-League officialdom. Over the eight and a half seasons of the A-League the Mariners have averaged a lowly 9,422 (excluding finals), despite their continuing success. With no other professional sports outfit representing the Central Coast area in a national competition, it's unfathomable. But Graham Arnold was proud of the club's attendances, ". . . there's a population up here of 250,000 and if you can average 10,000 a game you are doing great." Herein lies the problem; if the Mariners are hamstrung by a small population base to call on for fans, what will happen in the future? The A-League's salary cap will grow gradually larger, and the Mariners crowds won't. They will never attract out of town fans (in their current guise) as they continue to let go of stars and are reluctant to purchase a marquee player (Aloisi's short tenure is excluded). Basing your club on the West Ham model is futile. What have all the transfer fees done for them?

This season the Mariners are dead ducks, with the retirement of centre-back Patrick Zwaanswijk compounded by manager Arnold's mid-season disappearance with conditioner Andrew Clarke and midfielder Michael McGlinchey in tow. Throw in the season ending injury of Marcos Flores and it's groundhog's day for Mariners fans. A future of mediocrity seems the only destiny for the Central Coast Mariners and their foray into the Tom Rogic 'loan chase' will most definitely come up fruitless. Perhaps the only hope for the Gosford club is owner Mike Charlesworth, with his plans to boost the local economy and make the Mariners 'Centre of Excellence' the home of the Socceroos. Good luck Mike.

MELBOURNE JUST DOESN'T HAVE THE HEART FOR TWO TEAMS

Melbourne Heart have sacked manager John Aloisi after a miserable run of sixteen matches without a league win. But the former Socceroo stalwart's sacking masks a bigger problem at the Heart. Not many people actually care about them.

Heart were founded and immediately planted into the A-League for the 2010/11 season. Since then we've witnessed 10 Melbourne derbies and it cannot be denied that there is a genuine buzz about the fixture. Unfortunately, the rest of the time Melbourne pays virtually no attention to the red and white team. Looking at average attendances for the three 'full seasons' Melbourne Heart have existed, most would say, "that's not so bad." In 2010/11 Heart averaged 8312, in 2011/12 they rose to 9082, while in 2012/13 attendances dropped to 8560. It's a solid base to build from, but closer investigation of these statistics reveals a major concern for Melbourne's second A-League team.

It's Melbourne's 'contrived' derby which continues to prop up Heart's end of season attendance stats. The Heart's rate of patronage plunges markedly when the derby match is removed from their attendance records. Averages for 2010/11 without the derby were 5825. In other years the impact has been similar (check graph).

MELB. HEART ATTENDANCE AVERAGES - COMPARISON GRAPH

The problem apart from Heart's limited on-field success is their lack of identity. As I sit here in my Sydney office I ponder, "Why would someone support Melbourne Heart?" Reason 1: an individual prefers red over blue. Reason 2: an individual is an anti soccer fan who fears Melbourne Victory's rising iconicism.

While I too prefer red over blue (a graphic arts teacher once told me it symbolises passion), it's not the kind of reason that inspires long term loyalty, or requests for life memberships. Yes, Melbourne Heart have a solid base and if on-field success arrives numbers may swell, but FFA (Australian football's organising body) have long talked about Geelong as a location for an A-League club. What would happen to Heart's flimsily founded supporter base if Geelong did arrive?

Most Victorians scoff at 'AFL mad' Geelong being awarded an A-League license, but even if it's unlikely the Melbourne situation must be resolved. Unlike Sydney's derby that works on a good old fashioned geographical separation, which divides the so called 'working class' from the 'silvertails', Melbourne's derby is about nothing, and when the blue team aren't in town no one cares.

Despite all those in the south harping on about Melbourne being Australia's 'sports capital', or even the world's sports capital, the Melbourne Heart provides little evidence. The solution is to move Melbourne Heart out of the city centre.
    

GUANGZHOU'S GRAND ADVENTURE ENDS IN MOROCCO

Asian Champions League title winner Guangzhou Evergrande have been beaten 3-nil by European champions Bayern Munich at the Club World Cup. In a year where the Chinese club has conquered continental rivals, won a third Chinese Super League in a row, and were runners up in the Chinese FA Cup, the Club World Cup was conveniently scheduled for their opponents.

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The Guangzhou that we saw defeated by Bayern Munich today was not the quick shifting, attack at all costs Guangzhou that we saw during the Asian Champions League. It's fair to say Marcello Lippi gave the German team ample respect, and if anyone knows better than bloggers and fans, it's the World Cup winning Lippi. He asked his Guangzhou outfit to play deep, very deep, and his plan almost worked as the teams were still locked at 0-0 after 39 minutes. But eventually a lopsided possession stat and shot count turned into goals, as French import Frank Riberry slotted one under keeper Zeng, when a clearance was muffed. On halftime it was 2-nil when Bowen Huang was pick-pocketed, dicking around at the back. The ensuing cross found Croatian import Mandzukic, and he made no mistake. It was a tough ask to expect the team to adopt a new style of play against the highest quality opponent they had faced, but Guangzhou certainly didn't look overawed. They conceded one more time with Mario Goetze scoring from outside the box just moments after Muriqui had spurned an opportunity in the 47th minute.

Guangzhou Evergrande can hold their heads high after an exhausting season where they took the Asian club game to a new level. Down 3-nil for almost all of the second half, they never dropped their heads, with possession stats of 72% against, and 27 shots to a paltry 2, it was uncharted territory for the kings of Asia. With 2014 next on the club's agenda Guangzhou face new challenges with little Argentine play-maker Conca departing and mooted spending sprees by their Chinese rivals.

KOREA REPUBLIC WITH DREAM DRAW FOR BRAZIL 2014

Of Asia's participants in Brazil 2014 Korea Republic are the most fortunate. The Taeguk Warriors have been drawn in what I label the 'Group of Fluff', while Japan have also been rather fortunate in contrast to Australia and Iran.

Brazil 2014 has gifted Korea Republic with a dream draw including: Belgium, Algeria and play-off qualifiers Russia. Unfortunately the lucky draw has come at a time when Korea Republic is at a low ebb, with a world ranking of 54, and more importantly only just scraping through to qualify automatically for Brazil 2014. They finished second behind Iran and narrowly avoided a play-off on goal difference. Meanwhile, Russian manager Fabio Capello has put himself under pressure by labelling his team as favourites to win the group. The Italian tried to hide a contempt for his opponents by then saying he wouldn't underestimate them. "Belgium are an excellent team consisting of young and skilled players . . . Korea are also very serious opponents . . ." Capello said.

Japan were almost as fortunate as Korea Republic, drawing Greece, Cote d'Ivoire and Columbia. Greece limped into Brazil 2014 via a play-off, after managing a huge tally of 12 goals from their 10 qualifiers against European giants such as Liechtenstein, Latvia and Lithuania (yes, I'm being sarcastic). Cote d'Ivoire were pretty comprehensive in qualification, remaining undefeated and winning their last round match against Senegal 4-2, over two legs. At least Japan weren't drawn with Nigeria who downed Cote d'Ivoire 4-1 in July just as Mexico did in August. Columbia were second in South American qualification off the back of the stingiest defence on that continent, but on the bright side Japan didn't receive Brazil or Argentina.

Australia are in arguably the toughest group of the tournament, placed alongside Spain, Netherlands and Chile. Even without the shocking draw Australia were going to do it tough as they're in a transitional phase, but really . . . drawing 2010's finalists Spain and Netherlands, it couldn't get worse. New manager Ange Postecoglou was typically defiant, and upbeat. Postecoglou has had repeated success domestically with Brisbane Roar, winning two titles in a row, before rejuvenating Melbourne Victory. Aware of the enormity of the task, the Socceroos manager gave a steely response in his written statement on the FFA website, ". . . we will embrace the challenge head on with the spirit and bravery that are hallmarks of our country and the Australian people." The Aussies will face Chile first up and it's do or die for both teams in this match. Chile will no doubt look upon Australia as their three point pick-up, and possibly underestimate them. But Chile have some great form behind them this year, drawing with Brazil, drawing with Spain, and giving England a 2-nil touch-up in London. The match against Netherlands may be Australia's best hope, with the Socceroos never defeated by a Dutch outfit. Spain will be a bridge too far, but overall the Aussies are familiar with the role of underdog, and it often brings out the best in them.

Iran find themselves up against Argentina, Nigeria, and first timers Bosnia-Herzegovina. For me Nigeria are the dark horse of the tournament, and Iran may get a stern lesson in their first match pitted against the Super Eagles. Manager Carlos Queiroz spoke of qualifying as being a hellish experience and looked forward to Iran's challenge. "For my players it should be an honour to play against these rivals and it is important they go out and enjoy every minute of every match, eager to make it to the second round," the former Manchester United assistant said. Team Melli have never advanced past the group phase in three attempts, but positives in this campaign come from their ability to take points away from home, and their tight defence. They won three of four away matches, including wins against Uzbekistan and Korea Republic, and conceded a miserly two goals in eight matches.

If Japan can get something from the Cote d'Ivoire clash, and as expected beat Greece, they'll be on the path to advance. The rest of Asia will struggle. Korea Republic may have received a dream draw but they're not in a position to take advantage of it, and it will surprise me if they advance. Australia has the bright and shiny Tom Rogic, but even the lowest ranked of their opponents, Chile (15th) have strong form. Iran have a great defence, and are strong away from home, but matches against teams from outside Asia haven't been so impressive (defeated by Albania and drew with Tunisia 2012). It's left to Japan to carry the flag for the continent, and unfortunately in a tough campaign for Asian teams they will face Italy, England, or Uruguay if they advance through the group stage.

YOKOHAMA LOSE J-LEAGUE ON FINAL DAY

 

Yokohama have lost the J-League, after failing to win in their last two matches of the season. Yes, they were hacked by local rivals Kawasaki on the last day, but champion teams are not known for limping over the line. While Yokohama F-Marinos was losing over the last two rounds, Hiroshima was winning, and the defending champions would eventually leapfrog F-Marinos on final day drama that is 'run of the mill' stuff in the J-League.

Both Yokohama and Hiroshima faced teams playing for direct entry into the 2014 Asian Champions League. Worse for Yokohama was the fact that Kawasaki were local rivals and hardly the type to have their neighbours waltz off with the title on their turf (Todoroki Stadium). The home team had the J-League's top scorer in Yoshito Okubo (26 goals), but they wouldn't need him when some dodgy goalkeeping, and even dodgier adjudicating provided Kawasaki with the go ahead goal. Okubo's long range drive did float a little as it came in from the keeper's right side, but he batted away rather unconvincingly, and the ball bounced nearest to midfielder Ryota Oshima, who's obvious handball wasn't sighted by ageing ref Yuichi Nishimura. After that Oshima put the ball on a platter for Brazilian Renatinho and Kawasaki were away in the 53rd minute. Yokohama rarely threatened until the final five minutes when they had a glut of corners which they couldn't convert. Manager Higuchi was quoted on J-League Official saying, "We were all looking to round off the season with the title but didn't get it and that hurts." While he spoke further in a consolatory manner of his players, they will rue the day they put on a lackadaisical effort at home to Niigata with the title within reach.

Hiroshima's efforts were somewhat helped along by the cunning of 25 year old defender Tsukasa Shiotani. Hiroshima led the match 1-nil when Naoki Ishihara chipped over the keeper on the 35 minute mark. Takahagi's side-footed through ball for the striker was superb. But entering first half stoppage time defender Shiotani dribbled out from the back with Kashima striker Yuya Osako in tow. Unfortunately it seems Osako's fleet footed presence threw up a gust of wind, which knocked the defender off balance. The referee quickly pulled out his bright yellow card; Osako's second yellow, and gifted Hiroshima the three points. Sadly Hiroshima's last day heroics will be blighted by some poor adjudicating and memories of cunning. My sister once said to me the farce of soccer is that a seemingly strong, superbly balanced athlete can sometimes fall over his own feet, and at vital moments. She calls it diving; I've come to recognise it as one of the crafts of the game. Kudos to Shiotani for his ability to fool the officialdom.




And so Hiroshima were crowned J-League champions for the second year in a row. Hiroshima finished one point ahead of Yokohama and three ahead of Kawasaki. They will now contest the Emperor's Cup quarter finals on December 22nd. They're expected to get by Ventforet Kofu as are Yokohama expected to beat relegated Oita Trinita. In the other quarter finals Vegalta Sendai host FC Tokyo, while Sagan Tosu are at home to the rampant Kawasaki Frontale.

In 2014 the J-League will welcome back Gamba Osaka, Vissel Kobe and play-off winner Tokushima Vortis. Tokushima are the first team from the island of Shikoku to enter into J1. Good luck to them in 2014. Meanwhile, we bid farewell to Oita Trinita, Jubilo Iwata (amazing), and Shonan Bellmare.
 

J LEAGUE TITLE IN YOKOHAMA'S GRASP

With two rounds remaining in the J-League Yokohama F Marinos are now four points clear of nearest rivals Urawa Reds. On a day when the chasing pack imploded, Yokohama toughed out a win in Shizuoka prefecture, against relegated Jubilo Iwata. It wasn't pretty but the Tri-Colours showed some champion qualities by winning while not playing 'champagne football'.

The stats tell of Yokohama's dominance but the action wasn't something that JFA will be airing in its promos for the J-League. Yokohama ended the match with 13 shots over Jubilo's 2, and a dominant 13 corners to Jubilo's 4. It was from a second half corner that the winning goal was scored. Nakamura, slightly off colour in his overall performance, sent in a corner which evaded any contact from defender or attacker as bounced inside the box. The loose ball drew an attempted smother by the Jubilo keeper and like the soccer gods had whispered something in his ear, Yuji 'Bomber' Nakazawa arrived on the scene at speed belying his age. He cleaned up the keepers scraps and made it 1-nil to Yokohama in the 69th minute. The remainder of the match saw Jubilo throw more men forward in pursuit of an equaliser, (which would not save them from relegation anyway - their fate is sealed) but it was offset by the occasional counter from Yokohama, primarily down the left through youngster Manabu Saito. F-Marinos would run out 1-nil winners with a late goal line clearance to regale about in the dressing room.

Meanwhile, Urawa Reds and Sanfrecce Hiroshima slipped up at a vital stage of the J-League. The Reds failed at home to the 'in form' Kawasaki Frontale (5 from last 6 J-League matches) while Hiroshima couldn't get past Cerezo Osaka. Brazilian Fabio Simplicio was the sole goal scorer at Kincho Stadium in Osaka, and he's put the pink half of Osaka in with a real shout of an ACL position. The Reds were unable to halt the march of Kawasaki who are also eying a place in the ACL. Kawasaki hit the front early via their Brazilian (it's a mandatory requirement) Jeci in the 12th minute. The Kanagawa side would retain that lead until Reds defender Makino thrust himself into the spotlight. Makino levelled the scores in the 57th minute, only to turn from hero to zero in two minutes. The defender was responsible for an own goal which restored Kawasaki's lead. In the dying stages Urawa had a number of corners and that man again, Makino would be involved. The defender was taken by surprise when a ball was deflected into in his path at chest height, inside the six yard box. He seemed frozen - cemented to the ground. The ball bounced off his chest aimlessly, soon after Kawasaki were off on a counter and it was the reliable Yoshito Okubo who drove the nail into Urawa's J-League coffins.

So with two rounds to go in the J-League, it's down to four teams. Cerezo Osaka will require Yokohama to lose both their matches, and hope for Hiroshima to slip up against Kashima, while they can beat Urawa on the last day to go ahead of them. Forget about Kashima. Although they face two teams above them, their goal difference is inferior by 12 to Yokohama's and though I love an equation, I can't see Yokohama going backward by six goals and Kashima forward by six. Of the chasing pack the best placed is Hiroshima. They have a 'gimme' of a match against relegated Shonan and a final round fixture against Kashima. In Hiroshima's favour is their goal difference of +19 just two inferior to Yokohama. Those two goals would be made up by virtue of their winning and Yokohama's losing over the last two rounds. It's all speculation at this stage, but no one would argue that Yokohama currently sit in the most enviable position. Their fate is own their own hands.