JAPAN'S FATE IN THE HANDS OF THE GODS

Here is a short video piece East Asian Soccer put together to try to clarify the Japan situation. Put simply, Japan must win and Ivory Coast must not win.

Japan can advance if Ivory Coast draws with Greece but thats when mathematics starts to play games with your head. NOTE: There is also a variable where Greece can go past Japan on goal difference. Greece would have to win handsomely and that's highly unlikely but Brazil 2014 has seen plenty of goals so far.

There are myriad scenarios above and Japan have got themselves in an undesirable situation, but it's not unbelievable that they beat an already qualified Columbia, and Greece playing with the belief they can still qualify certainly have the motivation to beat Ivory Coast.

Good luck to Japan. Even with this predicament they look the most likely of teams from the Asian Confederation to advance. 

KOREA REPUBLIC GIVEN A SOCCER SCHOOLING BY ALGERIA

In November 2013 East Asian Soccer predicted it would be a bad World Cup for the Asian Confederation. We were right. But of all the Asian teams in the tournament Korea Republic were the ones we pinned our hopes on. A relatively do-able group, with Russia, Algeria and Belgium. But oh how they've failed.

The Red Devils now need to win by at least a two goal margin against Belgium and hope the Russia v Algeria clash goes their way.

AUSSIES TO TAKE POINTS OFF HOLLAND. THAT AINT DOUBLE DUTCH.

Holland's number one hacker - Nigel de Jong

They're the team everyone's talking about. In their World Cup opener Holland thrashed 2010 champions Spain 5-1. Wow! Now the Dutch move onto soccer's downtrodden, mistreated and inglorious - Australia. The stereotyped ruffians, and technically barren Socceroos have a line up dominated by international rookies, with a spattering of proven pros. How can they beat Holland?

Thanks largely to a supportive media coverage, Australia's 3-1 loss to Chile has bet met with hope and positivity. As stated in my previous posting, there is a real 'feel good factor' reverberating around the Socceroos. They're young, energetic, and manager Ange Postecoglou has them believing they can beat anyone. Being a realist I don't believe that, but I sure as hell think they can get something from an overrated Dutch outfit.

On Australia's side is history and psychology. The pair has played three times previously for one Australian victory and two draws. In those three matches we've seen a measly five goals.

In terms of psychology let's face it, Australia is not a big scalp for Holland and never has been. The Dutch mindset will be 'get through this match without injury', and 'get through this match without yellow cards'. They're already thinking about a possible date with Brazil in the round of 16. Seriously, would the world be saying "wow!", if the Dutch do as expected and beat Australia? No. The Oranje will be going through the motions.

To illustrate my point about complacency I'll turn to Daniel Garb's interview with Holland manager Louis Van Gaal. Asked about the 'head to head' history of the two nations Van Gaal replied, "the statistics say that the Netherlands never have won from Australia." Van Gaal surprised the interviewer, but poignantly the 62 year old had a wry smile on his face after delivering that tasty little morsel. The Dutch are aware of Tim Cahill and the history, but in the back of their minds they think it's a certain three points.

So an over confident Holland will arrive in Porto Alegre having scored five goals against Spain - three from long balls and two that could be attributed to goalkeeping blunders. Applying a little perspective, we would all agree Holland are not four goals better than Spain, it was a once in a lifetime event. I've put my money where my mouth is - will you do the same?

$50 on the Socceroos 

 

19/1. That's easy money!

SOCCEROOS: THE GOOD NEWS AND THE BAD NEWS

THE GOOD NEWS

The Socceroos - team photo Brazil 2014

For the Socceroos, Brazil 2014 has had a 'feel good factor' that can only be compared to Germany in 2006. Why are we feeling good? The media has united behind the team. England fans would envy the Socceroos outfit for the positively joyous coverage the young squad has received from the media. It's a totally different story to South Africa 2010 when the media savaged the team.

If we wind the clock back four years to the Socceroos camp in South Africa, life was very different. The 'professional' media were hungry with 'Pim Hate', and one journo even made South Africa the locale for his own 'Harry Hunt'. Contrastingly, barely a mention has been made of the selection of an unfit and injured Bresciano, or Jedinak's separate training sessions at this year's tournament. Good!

The team is in a good place mentally. Manager Ange Postecoglou has a lot to do with this. Postecoglou broke the mould with Brisbane Roar, when he steered the Queenslanders to two Championships and a record breaking 36 matches undefeated. Most notable though is the style of play that Postecoglou instills in his teams. It was so free flowing and fluid that Brisbane Roar earned the nickname, 'Roarcelona'.

THE BAD NEWS 

The bad news is Australia's team of international rookies faces Chile in their World Cup opener. Forget that they are ranked 48 places higher than Australia in FIFA's world rankings, and just check their style. They were so easy on the eye in South Africa (qualified for final 16), and results say La Roja have only improved since then. Chile have won five of their last seven matches, knocking off England 2-0 (at Wembley) and demolishing Costa Rica 4-0 along the way. Note that their striker Alexis Sanchez only plays for Barcelona.

Alexis Sanchez - Chile

The worst news for Australia is that we have a new central defencive pairing. On any other day Alex Wilkinson and Mathew Spiranovic would come under scrutiny as individuals, in regards to their capability against the world's best. In Brazil, the pair is standing alongside each other with the job of plugging holes and blocking shots from the likes of Sanchez, Van Persie and David Villa. The world cup opener is just the second time the two have played alongside each other.

Unfortunately the Socceroos are set to get a red hot taste of reality when Chile hits them tomorrow. As a usually optimistic fan of the Socceroos, I hope I'm stunningly wrong, but common sense tells us that raw enthusiasm and media support can't get you past the world's best.

Fingers crossed Australia.

MELBOURNE'S NEW TRADITION A WINNER

Melbourne Heart officially re-badged as Melbourne City

Melbourne Heart have officially re-badged themselves as Melbourne City FC, with a brand new emblem and a brand new home kit to boot. The name had been public knowledge for some time as the City Football Group (owners of Manchester City and New York City) had bought the club in January this year but the new home kit and logo haven't been met with total support. On the upside the club did make the re-badging announcement in conjunction with news of David Villa's signing.

While some fans have greeted the new kit with lukewarm enthusiasm due to the ownership's discarding of Melbourne Heart/City's red and white history, the red and white stripes are still in circulation as the club's away kit. The new emblem, possibly the ownership's cleverest coup sports a close replication of the city of Melbourne's flag, encircled by a sky blue ring. Importantly the city of Melbourne flag includes a red and white cross of St George. The red and white aspect of the new emblem no doubt pleasing some fans.

The Melbourne City emblem. Looks like soccer.

While it is only for a ten week guest player stint the signing of David Villa is massive. The news is not only good for Melbourne City fans but the A-League in general. With the soccer world heading into a World Cup it's a beautiful thing to have one of Spain's mainstays announcing his plans to grace the A-League. Villa is expected to play his part for Melbourne City between October and December before heading off to New York City for the MLS.

David Villa signs with Melbourne City FC

If there is a loser in all of this, it's Melbourne Victory. The club whose fans set the platform in the early years of the A-League is now set to be usurped by their city rivals. Regularly referring to the themselves as the biggest club in the competition, it's likely they'll no longer be the biggest club in their own state. Melbourne City whom when known as Melbourne Heart I labelled as lacking identity, have now got an identity. City is  the child of wealthy and respected parents with a core group of passionate fans that is set to grow with more marquee signings, and that ever so important ingredient - success. Good luck City!

MARINERS ARRIVE IN JAPAN WITH BAG OF EXCUSES IN HAND

The little club that won't go away has arrived in Japan for Match Day 6 of their 2014 Asian Champions League tilt. As if on cue the Central Coast Mariners whinging and whining came wringing out of the post match press conference on Friday (18th April), after they downed the entertaining Adelaide United.

Moss consoles Hutchinson after ACL Match Day 5

Mariners manager Phil Moss teed off at FFA for scheduling their A-League semi-final on Saturday 26th April (rather than Sunday), giving the Gosford club a limited recovery period from their bout with Hiroshima tonight. "A 24-hour turnaround from flying in from an overnight flight to playing a grand final qualifier is not acceptable," the manager moaned. Moss looked to garner sympathy from the gathered media and the public as the broken record kicked into overdrive. Year after year of their annoying existence the Mariners have tried to play the 'little battler' card, and Moss has proven that like previous managers Lawrie McKinna and Graham Arnold he has a knack for building a siege mentality around his playing group.

For all the manager's bleating about the toughness of the draw, the situation could have been avoided if Central Coast had simply finished in the top two of the A-League. If they had, the Mariners would have been in the privileged position Western Sydney Wanderers found themselves in. Wanderers had a week off after the regular season, before going into their ACL clash with Guizhou Renhe fresh as daisies, and as expected routed the Chinese outfit 5-0.

As for the Mariners' hopes against Hiroshima I'd have to give them more than half a hope. After sitting in the stands for Hiroshima's visit to Niigata over the weekend and making a miracle turnaround to write this article within days, I saw nothing in the purple team's arsenal to scare Central Coast. Hiroshima played their usual 'cat and mouse' game hoping to catch Niigata on the break, but too often their transitions were broken down by the home team.

So tonight the moment of truth arrives for the Mariners in what will definitely be a cagey affair, with both teams likely to sit back and counter attack. Yes, there was no Hisato Sato and a home ground advantage for the Mariners last time the two met, but importantly tonight a draw will be enough for the Aussie club to advance to the Champions League Round of 16 provided FC Seoul draw or win at home against Beijing.

WANDERERS POISED TO TOP CHAMPIONS LEAGUE GROUP

Australian soccer has officially proved itself worthy of respect amongst Asia's top professional leagues. Last night Western Sydney Wanderers shocked K-League opponents Ulsan Hyundai with a 2-nil win in Korea Republic. In an even bigger shock Melbourne Victory defeated continental king-pins Guangzhou Evergrande in Melbourne in front of 13,000 plus fans.

Wanderers now sit atop Group H with just one group match remaining. The fact that match is against strugglers Guizhou Renhe has this blogger labelling it a foregone conclusion that Wests are going to top their group. Arguments for this fate tempting prediction are plenty.

1. Guizhou Renhe will make the more than 9 hour flight to Sydney with absolutely no motivation as they cannot advance from the group.
2. Wanderers will be fresh as there is no action for teams one and two from the A-League in this the first weekend of the finals series. 
3. Wanderers are currently on 9 points as are Kawasaki, but the J-League team is less likely to take all three points against a desperate Ulsan Hyundai fighting for survival on 7 points. 
4. If Kawasaki do win it's unlikely they'll surpass Wanderers goal difference as the A-League team is likely to rout Guizhou Renhe.

After topping their group Wanderers will then face off with the runner up of Group F, likely to be Sanfrecce Hiroshima or FC Seoul. Currently Central Coast Mariners (6pts) have a slim one point lead in Group F, but tonight they host FC Seoul (5pts), whom will likely bring them back to earth. Mariners travel to Hiroshima the following week after having played their A-League semi final against Adelaide. The Gosford team just can't do it.

As for Melbourne Victory well done to them. They toppled Lippi's Guangzhou and have their qualification fate in their own hands. Unfortunately they'll have to travel to Korea Republic to take on ACL regulars Jeonbuk. It's a mountain of a task, but they could take some momentum into the match if they add to their defeat of Guangzhou, with a semi final victory over Sydney FC in the A-League on Friday.