WHO OWNS OSAKA? CEREZO V GAMBA

The 2014 J-League season sees the return of Gamba Osaka to J1 after a brief visit to the second tier. Fans will be treated to the usual two derbies this season but Gamba may find things have changed

 It's been a lively off season for the J-League, and Cerezo Osaka have led the market exchanges. I'm not sure whether the foray into the Asian Champions League this year has been a motivator but the Yanmar owned club have gone on an unrestrained player buy-up. Uruguayan star Diego Forlan leads the signings. "I've never received such a reception," he said. The striker has already made an appearance off the bench in Cerezo Osaka's opening ACL match.

The pink half of Osaka have beefed up their attacking stocks with the purchase of Aria Jasuru Hasegawa from FC Tokyo. Australians will remember him well, particularly Brisbane Roar fans who witnessed him tear Brisbane apart with his silky technique and fab passing game in the 2012 ACL. Australians will also be familiar with Ryo Nagai and Mitch Nichols who both joined the club during the off-season. Nichols has a clever passing game and is a Socceroos candidate for Brazil 2014. Ryo Nagai's career has been littered with injuries but when the winger is injury free he adds plenty of speed and attacking thrust. The two will most likely feature as squad players only, with the likes of Yoichiro Kakitani in front of them in midfield. Kakitani scored an extraordinary 21 J-League goals in 2013, but unfortunately for Cerezo fans Kakitani is rumoured to be on the move mid season. 

 For Gamba Osaka returning to the J-League was a formality. The first victory for Gamba was retaining a large number of their J1 squad. Inspiring national team midfielder Yasuhito Endo stayed on at the relegated club and Gamba were able to win the 42 match J2 by a narrow four point margin. Most impressive in Gamba's visit to J2 was Takashi Usami who returned from an unsuccessful stint in Germany to score 19 goals in 18 appearances. However, fast-forward to the present and Usami is out for at least the first eight weeks of the season with an ankle injury.

The traditional Kansai region heavyweights (Gamba) have been overshadowed in the transfer market by Cerezo, and their biggest signings come in the form of Masaaki Higashiguchi and Brazilian Lins. Higashiguchi is a quality keeper, transferred from Albirex Niigata. Having watched a lot of Niigata I'll say it's a good purchase, and he's a keeper capable of higher honours. Lins is a 26 year old striker with a wealth of experience in Brazil, including the Serie A where he scored 11 goals last season. But on the balance of things it looks a tough task for Gamba Osaka to match their city rivals in 2014. With former FC Tokyo manager Ranko Popovic now in charge at Cerezo fans can expect sexy football and possibly an inaugural J1 title. Meanwhile, Gamba fans should be pleased with a mid table finish, although even that may be a little optimistic.

MELBOURNE VICTORY INTO ASIAN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

On Saturday night Melbourne Victory became the third Australian club into the Asian Champions League Group Stage. The Victorian club had to fight tooth and nail with Thai's Muangthong United in a play-off match ending 2-1 in front of a disappointing 8,304 fans.

Mark Milligan - standout performer despite a penalty miss

Melbourne Victory started the match a raging hot favourite; for reasons unbeknown to this writer. From the early moments though, Melbourne justified the bookies' quote, with a wealth of possession, and an opponent that was hell bent on sitting back. However, the first goal came from Muangthong United. Despite a couple of counter attacking opportunities early, Muangthong's opening goal in the 22nd minute was undeniably against the run of play. Mario Djurovski's corner was untouched as it floated beyond defender Galloway's frozen figure at the near post.

Melbourne's dominance continued unabated though. On the brink of halftime striker Archie Thompson was pushed to the ground in the box and captain Mark Milligan stepped up for the penalty. The Melbourne captain made a mess of it, slamming the ball into the upright. Melbourne returned in the second half with the same level of dominance as in the opening half. Muangthong continued to sit deep and this was a recipe for disaster not only for the Thais, but also my precious $5 wager on a tied result (after 90 mins). Eventually Melbourne got their reward though. Fullback Scott Galloway made up for his role in the goal conceded by providing the cross that James Troisi finished with aplomb. Nobody picked up the striker, and though replays showed the Socceroo hopeful was marginally offside, the 8000 odd in attendance were largely unconcerned. Melbourne's clincher came in the 83rd minute, as Muangthong failed to clear a corner sufficiently. Midfielder Leigh Broxham popped up with a drive from distance - the Muangthong goalkeeper was wrong footed by a deflection - and the match was all but over.

Running out 2-1 victors Melbourne's prize is a ticket to the Asian Champions League's group of death. They have the privilege of squaring off against current continental champions Guangzhou Evergrande, perennial knockout stage contestants Jeonbuk Motors, and Shunsuke Nakamura's Yokohama F Marinos. It's hoped the Melbourne population can finally show some appreciation for the burgeoning competition, as previous years have been witness to abysmal attendances.  

HARRY'S HOPES FOR BRAZIL GET A BOOST

Harry Kewell - Melbourne Heart 2013/14

He's Australia's most celebrated soccer player, and though many wouldn't have believed it in 2001 it looks as though Harry Kewell will play in three World Cups. With Robbie Kruse's heart breaking ACL tear virtually ruling the 25 year old out of Brazil, Kewell's stocks took a boost. Now back from his own injury woes, there is a groundswell of support for the talisman. But he needs to convince one more man; Ange Postecoglou.

After failing to qualify for the 2002 World Cup, it seemed Harry Kewell would suffer the fate of so many great Aussie soccer players. The World Cup looked the impossible dream after Uruguay gave the Socceroos another taste of, 'so close yet so far'. However, Australia went on to reach the 2006 World Cup and 2010 World Cup with Harry Kewell playing a role on both occasions. Harry's late goal against Croatia sent Australia through to the knockout stage in Germany but his experience in South Africa was nightmarish. Brought down in the box against Ghana and ignored, he was later red carded for handball. Good and bad, Harry has seen it all, and the wealth of knowledge at his disposal can only benefit the youth around him.

Harry's chances of travelling to Brazil looked slim just over a month ago, when he had yet to complete 90 minutes for Melbourne Heart. But gradually Kewell has built up match fitness, and it's no coincidence that Melbourne Heart's on-field fortunes have taken a turn for the better since the return of Harry. Coinciding with Kewell's lift in form and game time was the devastating news of Robbie Kruse's ACL injury. The 25 year old attacker will need to perform a miracle to be ready by May 13th, when the preliminary 30 man squad is announced. The standard recovery time for ACL injuries is a minimum of six months before the individual can return to high impact activity that soccer involves, and Socceroos manager Ange Postecoglou is a staunch advocate of players with game time under their belt. This fact virtually rules Kruse out.

So it all comes down to Postecoglou. Is there some lingering discontent between Kewell and Postecoglou after Harry's departure from Melbourne Victory in 2012? Will the manager dig in stubbornly against the tide of momentum being built by Kewell's form, and advocates such as Slater and Harper? The two were heard in pre and post match discussions on Friday night (31st January), building the case for Harry, and with Australia's slated friendly with Ecuador set for March 5th, we will soon know if there are any skeletons in the closet.

MARINERS FOREVER MIRED IN MEDIOCRITY

Central Coast Mariners are currently 4th on the A-League ladder, with a host of teams within striking distance. The defending champions have long been punching above their weight, but it seems this season that the regular holes that appear in their campaign vessel, just can't be plugged. Will they ever have a steady ship?

Losing promising young players has been a fact of life for the Gosford based club, and it's something that the hierarchy are happy to celebrate. Former manager Graham Arnold recently echoed those sentiments in an interview with Robbie Slater. On Tom Rogic leaving Arnold said, "It was the philosophy of the club, and we needed it for the club to survive at the time." Further evidence of the philosophy can be found in the following departure list: Michael Beauchamp (left for Europe 06-07), Mile Jedinak (left for Europe 2009), Mustafa Amini (left for Europe 2012), Matt Ryan (left for Europe 2013). Add to that the club stalwarts who took Asian paydays: Alex Wilkinson (Korea), Matt Simon (Korea), and Michael McGlinchey (Japan). While the club likes to inform us that they will never stand in the way of a youngster jetting off to further his career, they forget to realise the fans are suffering.

The Mariners have stunned us with two premierships and one championship from the eight A-League seasons so far. They've appeared in four of the end of season championship matches and an amazing six times in the finals series. But a look at attendance averages is very disheartening for A-League officialdom. Over the eight and a half seasons of the A-League the Mariners have averaged a lowly 9,422 (excluding finals), despite their continuing success. With no other professional sports outfit representing the Central Coast area in a national competition, it's unfathomable. But Graham Arnold was proud of the club's attendances, ". . . there's a population up here of 250,000 and if you can average 10,000 a game you are doing great." Herein lies the problem; if the Mariners are hamstrung by a small population base to call on for fans, what will happen in the future? The A-League's salary cap will grow gradually larger, and the Mariners crowds won't. They will never attract out of town fans (in their current guise) as they continue to let go of stars and are reluctant to purchase a marquee player (Aloisi's short tenure is excluded). Basing your club on the West Ham model is futile. What have all the transfer fees done for them?

This season the Mariners are dead ducks, with the retirement of centre-back Patrick Zwaanswijk compounded by manager Arnold's mid-season disappearance with conditioner Andrew Clarke and midfielder Michael McGlinchey in tow. Throw in the season ending injury of Marcos Flores and it's groundhog's day for Mariners fans. A future of mediocrity seems the only destiny for the Central Coast Mariners and their foray into the Tom Rogic 'loan chase' will most definitely come up fruitless. Perhaps the only hope for the Gosford club is owner Mike Charlesworth, with his plans to boost the local economy and make the Mariners 'Centre of Excellence' the home of the Socceroos. Good luck Mike.

MELBOURNE JUST DOESN'T HAVE THE HEART FOR TWO TEAMS

Melbourne Heart have sacked manager John Aloisi after a miserable run of sixteen matches without a league win. But the former Socceroo stalwart's sacking masks a bigger problem at the Heart. Not many people actually care about them.

Heart were founded and immediately planted into the A-League for the 2010/11 season. Since then we've witnessed 10 Melbourne derbies and it cannot be denied that there is a genuine buzz about the fixture. Unfortunately, the rest of the time Melbourne pays virtually no attention to the red and white team. Looking at average attendances for the three 'full seasons' Melbourne Heart have existed, most would say, "that's not so bad." In 2010/11 Heart averaged 8312, in 2011/12 they rose to 9082, while in 2012/13 attendances dropped to 8560. It's a solid base to build from, but closer investigation of these statistics reveals a major concern for Melbourne's second A-League team.

It's Melbourne's 'contrived' derby which continues to prop up Heart's end of season attendance stats. The Heart's rate of patronage plunges markedly when the derby match is removed from their attendance records. Averages for 2010/11 without the derby were 5825. In other years the impact has been similar (check graph).

MELB. HEART ATTENDANCE AVERAGES - COMPARISON GRAPH

The problem apart from Heart's limited on-field success is their lack of identity. As I sit here in my Sydney office I ponder, "Why would someone support Melbourne Heart?" Reason 1: an individual prefers red over blue. Reason 2: an individual is an anti soccer fan who fears Melbourne Victory's rising iconicism.

While I too prefer red over blue (a graphic arts teacher once told me it symbolises passion), it's not the kind of reason that inspires long term loyalty, or requests for life memberships. Yes, Melbourne Heart have a solid base and if on-field success arrives numbers may swell, but FFA (Australian football's organising body) have long talked about Geelong as a location for an A-League club. What would happen to Heart's flimsily founded supporter base if Geelong did arrive?

Most Victorians scoff at 'AFL mad' Geelong being awarded an A-League license, but even if it's unlikely the Melbourne situation must be resolved. Unlike Sydney's derby that works on a good old fashioned geographical separation, which divides the so called 'working class' from the 'silvertails', Melbourne's derby is about nothing, and when the blue team aren't in town no one cares.

Despite all those in the south harping on about Melbourne being Australia's 'sports capital', or even the world's sports capital, the Melbourne Heart provides little evidence. The solution is to move Melbourne Heart out of the city centre.
    

GUANGZHOU'S GRAND ADVENTURE ENDS IN MOROCCO

Asian Champions League title winner Guangzhou Evergrande have been beaten 3-nil by European champions Bayern Munich at the Club World Cup. In a year where the Chinese club has conquered continental rivals, won a third Chinese Super League in a row, and were runners up in the Chinese FA Cup, the Club World Cup was conveniently scheduled for their opponents.

Enjoy commentary on YouTube Video

The Guangzhou that we saw defeated by Bayern Munich today was not the quick shifting, attack at all costs Guangzhou that we saw during the Asian Champions League. It's fair to say Marcello Lippi gave the German team ample respect, and if anyone knows better than bloggers and fans, it's the World Cup winning Lippi. He asked his Guangzhou outfit to play deep, very deep, and his plan almost worked as the teams were still locked at 0-0 after 39 minutes. But eventually a lopsided possession stat and shot count turned into goals, as French import Frank Riberry slotted one under keeper Zeng, when a clearance was muffed. On halftime it was 2-nil when Bowen Huang was pick-pocketed, dicking around at the back. The ensuing cross found Croatian import Mandzukic, and he made no mistake. It was a tough ask to expect the team to adopt a new style of play against the highest quality opponent they had faced, but Guangzhou certainly didn't look overawed. They conceded one more time with Mario Goetze scoring from outside the box just moments after Muriqui had spurned an opportunity in the 47th minute.

Guangzhou Evergrande can hold their heads high after an exhausting season where they took the Asian club game to a new level. Down 3-nil for almost all of the second half, they never dropped their heads, with possession stats of 72% against, and 27 shots to a paltry 2, it was uncharted territory for the kings of Asia. With 2014 next on the club's agenda Guangzhou face new challenges with little Argentine play-maker Conca departing and mooted spending sprees by their Chinese rivals.

KOREA REPUBLIC WITH DREAM DRAW FOR BRAZIL 2014

Of Asia's participants in Brazil 2014 Korea Republic are the most fortunate. The Taeguk Warriors have been drawn in what I label the 'Group of Fluff', while Japan have also been rather fortunate in contrast to Australia and Iran.

Brazil 2014 has gifted Korea Republic with a dream draw including: Belgium, Algeria and play-off qualifiers Russia. Unfortunately the lucky draw has come at a time when Korea Republic is at a low ebb, with a world ranking of 54, and more importantly only just scraping through to qualify automatically for Brazil 2014. They finished second behind Iran and narrowly avoided a play-off on goal difference. Meanwhile, Russian manager Fabio Capello has put himself under pressure by labelling his team as favourites to win the group. The Italian tried to hide a contempt for his opponents by then saying he wouldn't underestimate them. "Belgium are an excellent team consisting of young and skilled players . . . Korea are also very serious opponents . . ." Capello said.

Japan were almost as fortunate as Korea Republic, drawing Greece, Cote d'Ivoire and Columbia. Greece limped into Brazil 2014 via a play-off, after managing a huge tally of 12 goals from their 10 qualifiers against European giants such as Liechtenstein, Latvia and Lithuania (yes, I'm being sarcastic). Cote d'Ivoire were pretty comprehensive in qualification, remaining undefeated and winning their last round match against Senegal 4-2, over two legs. At least Japan weren't drawn with Nigeria who downed Cote d'Ivoire 4-1 in July just as Mexico did in August. Columbia were second in South American qualification off the back of the stingiest defence on that continent, but on the bright side Japan didn't receive Brazil or Argentina.

Australia are in arguably the toughest group of the tournament, placed alongside Spain, Netherlands and Chile. Even without the shocking draw Australia were going to do it tough as they're in a transitional phase, but really . . . drawing 2010's finalists Spain and Netherlands, it couldn't get worse. New manager Ange Postecoglou was typically defiant, and upbeat. Postecoglou has had repeated success domestically with Brisbane Roar, winning two titles in a row, before rejuvenating Melbourne Victory. Aware of the enormity of the task, the Socceroos manager gave a steely response in his written statement on the FFA website, ". . . we will embrace the challenge head on with the spirit and bravery that are hallmarks of our country and the Australian people." The Aussies will face Chile first up and it's do or die for both teams in this match. Chile will no doubt look upon Australia as their three point pick-up, and possibly underestimate them. But Chile have some great form behind them this year, drawing with Brazil, drawing with Spain, and giving England a 2-nil touch-up in London. The match against Netherlands may be Australia's best hope, with the Socceroos never defeated by a Dutch outfit. Spain will be a bridge too far, but overall the Aussies are familiar with the role of underdog, and it often brings out the best in them.

Iran find themselves up against Argentina, Nigeria, and first timers Bosnia-Herzegovina. For me Nigeria are the dark horse of the tournament, and Iran may get a stern lesson in their first match pitted against the Super Eagles. Manager Carlos Queiroz spoke of qualifying as being a hellish experience and looked forward to Iran's challenge. "For my players it should be an honour to play against these rivals and it is important they go out and enjoy every minute of every match, eager to make it to the second round," the former Manchester United assistant said. Team Melli have never advanced past the group phase in three attempts, but positives in this campaign come from their ability to take points away from home, and their tight defence. They won three of four away matches, including wins against Uzbekistan and Korea Republic, and conceded a miserly two goals in eight matches.

If Japan can get something from the Cote d'Ivoire clash, and as expected beat Greece, they'll be on the path to advance. The rest of Asia will struggle. Korea Republic may have received a dream draw but they're not in a position to take advantage of it, and it will surprise me if they advance. Australia has the bright and shiny Tom Rogic, but even the lowest ranked of their opponents, Chile (15th) have strong form. Iran have a great defence, and are strong away from home, but matches against teams from outside Asia haven't been so impressive (defeated by Albania and drew with Tunisia 2012). It's left to Japan to carry the flag for the continent, and unfortunately in a tough campaign for Asian teams they will face Italy, England, or Uruguay if they advance through the group stage.