CAN GUANGZHOU BE THE BEST FOREVER AGAIN?

Guangzhou celebrate Asian Champions League glory 2013.

Guangzhou Evergrande have won the last three Chinese Super League titles, along with a Chinese FA Cup in 2012, and last year's Asian Champions League crown. In his first full season as manager Marcello Lippi steered the team to the league title by a mere 18 points. But with a number of regular starters leaving the club this season, and the capture of Dejan Damjanovic by Beijing Guoan, suddenly the tigers of the south have some competition.

Beijing Guoan now trail the champions by just four points and importantly the team from the capital have a game in hand. Since returning from the summer break Beijing have captured seven of a possible twelve points. Not exactly a competition winning statistic, but the points surrendered were away from home and early in the Damjanovic era. And while Beijing's 3-0 win over Shanghai last weekend was a little flattering the green team have only one competition to focus on, unlike Guangzhou Evergrande.

With new co owners Alibaba (50% stake), Guangzhou have no problems when it comes to player recruitment, however, player retention is a problem. In 2014 Asia's number one team has had to deal with the exit of Dario Conca (off season), and club record goal scorer Muriqui (summer break). To expect Guangzhou to be as good a team as they were last year when the aforementioned were at their peak, is asking a lot. Yes, the tigers have splashed out on Alessandro Diamanti, and added another Italian Alberto Gilardino, but for all their experience it's rare that players arrive and blend with their new teammates immediately. Former Dalian Aerbin defender Li, Xuepeng is one who hasn't blended seamlessly with his new teammates. His recent arrival has coincided with the club conceding five goals in their last two matches.

For Guangzhou Evergrande to continue their dominance they'll be expected to win the Chinese Super League and the Asian Champions League. Their next assignment in the ACL (20th August) is Western Sydney Wanderers. Along with the nine hour flight, Wanderers should prove to be a stubborn opponent. Domestically Guangzhou's opponents can benefit no matter what the outcome of the two legged ACL quarter final. If they win, Guangzhou will be caught up in continental travel and a busy playing schedule. If they lose, the bubble around the team/club may finally burst.

These are interesting times for Guangzhou and if they're to 'be the best forever' in 2014, as their slogan says, it will take some quick adapting from their most recent arrivals.

NIIGATA IN J-LEAGUE SLIDE

Niigata and FC Tokyo came into their 16th round J-League clash with just three points separating them. At 22 and 19 respectively both are still in with a shout of the ACL places, but both could be dragged into the relegation battle.

Early in the piece FC Tokyo had the home crowd concerned with some cleverly constructed attack on the perimeter of the box. But as is oft the case with pretty play there was no end product. Shortly after, the Niigatians did have cause for concern, when Michael James's failed clearance lead to a cross being whipped in. FC Tokyo's 22 year old midfielder Yoshinori Muto obliged with a tap in, in the 17th minute.

The remainder of the first half saw an increasingly impatient Niigata resorting to long range shots, with midfielder Leo Silva trying his luck a number of times. Despite the reckless shooting Silva is a genuine star for the northerners. Along with his attacking play comes a work ethic not often associated with Brazilian imports.

The second half started like the first ended, with Niigata in the FC Tokyo defensive third, launching regular raids and coming up empty handed. Right-back Matsubara's overlapping runs were a highlight, but his crosses were unable to break a staggered eight man defence.

The story would remain the same for the rest of the match. The most realistic chances falling to Okamoto and Yamamoto. The former weaving his way through a mini battalion, only for his shot to be a mere stab, which the keeper happily swallowed up.

For their part FC Tokyo offered very little by way of attack, but they didn't need to. They picked up the prized 'go ahead goal' early, and as the away team, they were unconcerned with entertainment value. Ironically it would be them who had the best chance to score in the second half, when Edu found himself staring down a stranded goalkeeper. The advancing Niigata forces had been dispossessed and Edu skilfully slalomed past the keeper, only for his goal bound shot to be redirected by a desperate Matsubara - sliding in, in a nick of time.

But for all Niigata's labour the 1-0 scoreline which arrived in the 17th minute would remain, allowing FC Tokyo to level with them on the J-League table. The 'gas-men' on the way up, while Niigata continue to slide. Though Hideya Okamoto did provide some hope for the home team last night, the locals will be yearning for the return of forward Kengo Kawamata. And more specifically, Kawamata in his ruthless 2013 guise.

JAPAN'S FATE IN THE HANDS OF THE GODS

Here is a short video piece East Asian Soccer put together to try to clarify the Japan situation. Put simply, Japan must win and Ivory Coast must not win.

Japan can advance if Ivory Coast draws with Greece but thats when mathematics starts to play games with your head. NOTE: There is also a variable where Greece can go past Japan on goal difference. Greece would have to win handsomely and that's highly unlikely but Brazil 2014 has seen plenty of goals so far.

There are myriad scenarios above and Japan have got themselves in an undesirable situation, but it's not unbelievable that they beat an already qualified Columbia, and Greece playing with the belief they can still qualify certainly have the motivation to beat Ivory Coast.

Good luck to Japan. Even with this predicament they look the most likely of teams from the Asian Confederation to advance. 

KOREA REPUBLIC GIVEN A SOCCER SCHOOLING BY ALGERIA

In November 2013 East Asian Soccer predicted it would be a bad World Cup for the Asian Confederation. We were right. But of all the Asian teams in the tournament Korea Republic were the ones we pinned our hopes on. A relatively do-able group, with Russia, Algeria and Belgium. But oh how they've failed.

The Red Devils now need to win by at least a two goal margin against Belgium and hope the Russia v Algeria clash goes their way.

AUSSIES TO TAKE POINTS OFF HOLLAND. THAT AINT DOUBLE DUTCH.

Holland's number one hacker - Nigel de Jong

They're the team everyone's talking about. In their World Cup opener Holland thrashed 2010 champions Spain 5-1. Wow! Now the Dutch move onto soccer's downtrodden, mistreated and inglorious - Australia. The stereotyped ruffians, and technically barren Socceroos have a line up dominated by international rookies, with a spattering of proven pros. How can they beat Holland?

Thanks largely to a supportive media coverage, Australia's 3-1 loss to Chile has bet met with hope and positivity. As stated in my previous posting, there is a real 'feel good factor' reverberating around the Socceroos. They're young, energetic, and manager Ange Postecoglou has them believing they can beat anyone. Being a realist I don't believe that, but I sure as hell think they can get something from an overrated Dutch outfit.

On Australia's side is history and psychology. The pair has played three times previously for one Australian victory and two draws. In those three matches we've seen a measly five goals.

In terms of psychology let's face it, Australia is not a big scalp for Holland and never has been. The Dutch mindset will be 'get through this match without injury', and 'get through this match without yellow cards'. They're already thinking about a possible date with Brazil in the round of 16. Seriously, would the world be saying "wow!", if the Dutch do as expected and beat Australia? No. The Oranje will be going through the motions.

To illustrate my point about complacency I'll turn to Daniel Garb's interview with Holland manager Louis Van Gaal. Asked about the 'head to head' history of the two nations Van Gaal replied, "the statistics say that the Netherlands never have won from Australia." Van Gaal surprised the interviewer, but poignantly the 62 year old had a wry smile on his face after delivering that tasty little morsel. The Dutch are aware of Tim Cahill and the history, but in the back of their minds they think it's a certain three points.

So an over confident Holland will arrive in Porto Alegre having scored five goals against Spain - three from long balls and two that could be attributed to goalkeeping blunders. Applying a little perspective, we would all agree Holland are not four goals better than Spain, it was a once in a lifetime event. I've put my money where my mouth is - will you do the same?

$50 on the Socceroos 

 

19/1. That's easy money!

SOCCEROOS: THE GOOD NEWS AND THE BAD NEWS

THE GOOD NEWS

The Socceroos - team photo Brazil 2014

For the Socceroos, Brazil 2014 has had a 'feel good factor' that can only be compared to Germany in 2006. Why are we feeling good? The media has united behind the team. England fans would envy the Socceroos outfit for the positively joyous coverage the young squad has received from the media. It's a totally different story to South Africa 2010 when the media savaged the team.

If we wind the clock back four years to the Socceroos camp in South Africa, life was very different. The 'professional' media were hungry with 'Pim Hate', and one journo even made South Africa the locale for his own 'Harry Hunt'. Contrastingly, barely a mention has been made of the selection of an unfit and injured Bresciano, or Jedinak's separate training sessions at this year's tournament. Good!

The team is in a good place mentally. Manager Ange Postecoglou has a lot to do with this. Postecoglou broke the mould with Brisbane Roar, when he steered the Queenslanders to two Championships and a record breaking 36 matches undefeated. Most notable though is the style of play that Postecoglou instills in his teams. It was so free flowing and fluid that Brisbane Roar earned the nickname, 'Roarcelona'.

THE BAD NEWS 

The bad news is Australia's team of international rookies faces Chile in their World Cup opener. Forget that they are ranked 48 places higher than Australia in FIFA's world rankings, and just check their style. They were so easy on the eye in South Africa (qualified for final 16), and results say La Roja have only improved since then. Chile have won five of their last seven matches, knocking off England 2-0 (at Wembley) and demolishing Costa Rica 4-0 along the way. Note that their striker Alexis Sanchez only plays for Barcelona.

Alexis Sanchez - Chile

The worst news for Australia is that we have a new central defencive pairing. On any other day Alex Wilkinson and Mathew Spiranovic would come under scrutiny as individuals, in regards to their capability against the world's best. In Brazil, the pair is standing alongside each other with the job of plugging holes and blocking shots from the likes of Sanchez, Van Persie and David Villa. The world cup opener is just the second time the two have played alongside each other.

Unfortunately the Socceroos are set to get a red hot taste of reality when Chile hits them tomorrow. As a usually optimistic fan of the Socceroos, I hope I'm stunningly wrong, but common sense tells us that raw enthusiasm and media support can't get you past the world's best.

Fingers crossed Australia.

MELBOURNE'S NEW TRADITION A WINNER

Melbourne Heart officially re-badged as Melbourne City

Melbourne Heart have officially re-badged themselves as Melbourne City FC, with a brand new emblem and a brand new home kit to boot. The name had been public knowledge for some time as the City Football Group (owners of Manchester City and New York City) had bought the club in January this year but the new home kit and logo haven't been met with total support. On the upside the club did make the re-badging announcement in conjunction with news of David Villa's signing.

While some fans have greeted the new kit with lukewarm enthusiasm due to the ownership's discarding of Melbourne Heart/City's red and white history, the red and white stripes are still in circulation as the club's away kit. The new emblem, possibly the ownership's cleverest coup sports a close replication of the city of Melbourne's flag, encircled by a sky blue ring. Importantly the city of Melbourne flag includes a red and white cross of St George. The red and white aspect of the new emblem no doubt pleasing some fans.

The Melbourne City emblem. Looks like soccer.

While it is only for a ten week guest player stint the signing of David Villa is massive. The news is not only good for Melbourne City fans but the A-League in general. With the soccer world heading into a World Cup it's a beautiful thing to have one of Spain's mainstays announcing his plans to grace the A-League. Villa is expected to play his part for Melbourne City between October and December before heading off to New York City for the MLS.

David Villa signs with Melbourne City FC

If there is a loser in all of this, it's Melbourne Victory. The club whose fans set the platform in the early years of the A-League is now set to be usurped by their city rivals. Regularly referring to the themselves as the biggest club in the competition, it's likely they'll no longer be the biggest club in their own state. Melbourne City whom when known as Melbourne Heart I labelled as lacking identity, have now got an identity. City is  the child of wealthy and respected parents with a core group of passionate fans that is set to grow with more marquee signings, and that ever so important ingredient - success. Good luck City!